Rural rage or urban uprising? The electoral geography of the Sanseito surge in the 2025 Upper House elections

Abstract

The 2025 Sanseito surge offers an ideal opportunity to put the relative electoral stability in declining rural areas to the test. Based on an original municipal-level data set and evidence from a recent survey, this paper analyzes the political geography of the 2025 Sanseito surge. We hypothesize that the specific socio-spatial characteristics of shrinking rural areas – esp. aging and economic dependency – continue to favor the established conservative LDP over the anti-establishment contender.